Indonesia Motorbike Sales Fell 17.1% YoY in Mar-26

INDUSTRY 
Indonesia Motorbike Sales Fell 17.1% YoY in Mar-26 
Indonesia’s motorbike sales declined 17.1% YoY to 448,974 units in Mar-26, marking the first contraction since Jul-25 and reversing a 1.0% increase in Feb-26, as consumption shifted during Ramadan and ahead of Eid al-Fitr. On a monthly basis, sales dropped 23.6% MoM, while cumulative 1Q26 sales still grew 4.1% YoY, indicating earlier strength before seasonal slowdown. (Trading Economics) 
 

COMPANY 
BCAS: BSDE IJ - Earnings Miss, Muted Outlook 
- BSDE 4Q25 revenue reached IDR4,026bn (+69.7% QoQ; +7.9% YoY), bringing 12M25 revenue to IDR12,788bn (–7.3% YoY), at 95%/99% of our/consensus forecast, dragged by a 5% drop in development revenue and the absence of IDR615bn in one-off toll road construction revenue booked in FY24. - FY25 marketing sales rose 3.4% YoY to IDR10,050bn as JV land sales jumped to IDR2,130bn (+277% YoY) driven by land transfers to JV projects in BSD City, but residential presales fell 22% YoY on fading VAT incentive effects and weaker purchasing power. 
- 12M25 GPM was broadly stable at 63.5%, but OPM narrowed to 30.8% (vs 35.3%) as G&A rose 17.2% YoY on higher salaries and property holding costs. These translated into 4Q25 net profit of IDR1,182bn (-28.7% YoY) and 12M25 earnings of IDR2,545bn (-41.6% YoY), at 86%/88% of our/consensus. The decline is largely optical, adjusting for a one-off IDR1.55tn gain on subsidiary acquisition in FY24, underlying earnings fell only ~7%. 
- Our view: We see limited upside from here. Management's flat FY26 presales target of IDR10tn points to a soft demand environment, while BI's extended hold at 4.75% amid a weaker rupiah and rising inflation pushes back the mortgage recovery story.