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Seiring dengan perkembangan industri keuangan dan teknologi informasi yang tiada henti, riset keuangan dapat menjadi faktor penentu dalam pembuatan keputusan investasi yang membawa kesuksesan ataupun kegagalan. Untuk itu, telah menjadi tugas utama kami untuk memberikan panduan bagi para nasabah agar mereka dapat mengembangkan pemahaman yang lebih baik tentang berbagai risiko dalam trading maupun kegiatan investasi lainnya.
BCA Sekuritas telah mempunyai landasan yang kokoh dalam riset keuangan berkat dukungan para ahli dan analis yang obyektif serta sinergi yang baik dengan grup BCA. Nikmati keuntungan dari pendekatan unik kami yang telah terbukti, dan buatlah prediksi yang lebih baik hari ini.
Riset Saham Harian
17 March 2020
President requests Ministry of Finance (MoF) to shift IDR40tn of fund for consumption-related program
Joko Widodo requests rhe MoF to immediately shift IDR40tn of fund for programs that directly impact the consumption and purchasing power of the societies, especially for farmers, fishermen, laborers and the micro and small business players. (Bisnis Indonesia)
Feb-20 4W wholesale: ASII’s volume recovered.
• Gaikindo recorded Feb-20 4W wholesale of 79.6k units (0.5% MoM; -2.6% YoY), translating to 2M20 sales of 159.6k units (-2.5% YoY). Feb-20 LCGC sales reached 16.1k units (-5.5% MoM; -6.4% YoY), bringing 2M20 LCGC sales to reach 33.2k units (-3% YoY).
• Contrast to the industry, ASII manage to book Feb-20 sales of 43.1k units (+6.9% MoM; +3.2% YoY), bringing 2M20 to reach 83.2k units (-0.8% YoY). Toyota and Daihatsu manage to increase their sales MoM as we believe delivery were recovered following the Jakarta flood last month. Hence, we believe ASII’s sales volume should return to the negative growth territory next month, in our view.
• Mitsubishi only managed to book 10.9k units sales (-11.3% MoM; -25.4% YoY) as we believe Xpander’s sales has reached its peak, bringing it down to the normal level. While Honda and Suzuki’s sales decline MoM but recovered YoY.
• In terms of market share, ASII’s market share jumped to 54.1% as result of them bucking the trend. Meanwhile, all large manufacturers market share declined during Feb-20.
• Entering March, we should see Suzuki’s volume to pick up as they recently launched XL7 within their LMPV segment. On the flip side, we expect domestic volumes to be slashed by 20% this year as the impact of COVID-19 to weaken sales over the upcoming months. Additionally, the cancelation/postponement of large auto events (GIIAS has announced their postponement) should support our weakening volume thesis this year.
State Assets Management Agency (LMAN) to fund IDR300bn for Semarang-Demak tollroad this year
LMAN plans to inject IDR300bn funding for the Semarang-Demak tollroad’s land acquisition this year. Pembangunan Perumahan’s (PTPP) CFO and Risk Management, Agus Purbianto, also mentioned that LMAN funding is also budgeted at IDR1tn for next year from the total IDR3tn standby facility. Note that, Semarang-Demak tollroad with total investment of IDR15.3tn is estimated to be fully operating in 2022. (Bisnis Indonesia)
Adex growth target to be revised to 8%
The Head of Indonesian Advertising Companies Association, Janoe Arijanto, stated the adex growth target has a high potential to be revised to 8% from initially at 10-12% due to Covid-19 issue. He also mentioned that the slowdown has been seen in 1Q20 from several companies delaying or cancelling their launches agenda. Note that according to Nielsen Indonesia, 2019 adex reached IDR181.3tn. (Bisnis Indonesia)
Comment: While this may not represent the overall FMCG Companies’ adex, this would represent the overall downtrend as the impact from the Covid-19. Given the lower target, this might translate to a higher rate card discounts from media players. On the flip side, we might see a shift to FTA/digital ads given the slower below the line (events) budgets.
Mining companies to conduct buyback
PTBA, TINS and ANTM is planning to conduct buyback, allocating IDR300bn, IDR100bn, and IDR100bn, respectively. The buyback period will start from 17-Mar-20 until 16-Jun-20. (Investor Daily)
Semen Indonesia (SMGR) 4Q19 results: Above with ours and consensus estimate
Company booked higher-than-expected gross margin level of 31.5% in FY19 (vs. 30.0% of our expectation). Margin expansion was mainly attributable to ASP hike and favorable coal price. Our last call for company was HOLD at IDR12,000. In the long term, we view oversupply condition might continue longer-than-market -expectation due to slow demand as well as potential increasing number of cement production, especially from new players. On the other hand, the potential implementation of ODOL might be a significant pushback as well.
Source: Company, BCA Sekuritas
Chandra Asri (TPIA) FY19 result: below ours and consensus
Source: Company, BCA Sekuritas
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS) allocates IDR250bn to conduct share buyback
RALS will allocate IDR250bn of fund to conduct a shares buyback, starting from 17 Mar-20 until 16 Jun-20. The company has appointed KIM ENG Securities to conduct the buyback. (IDX)
Summarecon Agung (SMRA) – 2M20 Result
Source: Company, BCA Sekuritas
Waskita Karya (WSKT) received IDR6.2tn payment for Japek II Elevated
On 12-Mar-20, WSKT has received IDR6.2tn payment for the Jakarta-Cikampek II Elevated toll-road. Note that, the project is a JO between WSKT and Acset Indonusa with a total contract value of IDR13.5tn, with WSKT holding 51% of the portion. This year, WSKT expects cash inflow from the turnkey project payments of more than IDR10tn, which includes the recent Jakarta-Cikampek II Elevated project, LRT Palembang project (IDR2.7tn), Terbanggi Besar – Pematang Panggang – Kayu Agung project (IDR1.5tn), and other toll road projects. On the other hand, the Company also expects IDR18.7tn payment from projects with progress payment scheme this year and aims for IDR4.5tn fund repayment from State Assets Management Agency (LMAN). (Company)
Cashlez Worldwide Indonesia to IPO
Cashlez Worldwide Indonesia, a payment getaway company, plans to issue new shares of 300mn shares (20.3% from APIC) through IPO with price range of IDR298-358/share, totaling a potential proceed of IDR90-100bn. The Company’s CEO, Tee Teddy Setiawan, stated that 48.6% of the proceeds will be used to acquire a 51% ownership on another payment gateway company called Softorb Technology Indonesia (STI) while the rest are for working capital. Cashlez planned to be listed on the stock exchange on 20-Apr-20 and has appointed Sinarmas Sekuritas as the underwriter. (Investor Daily, Kontan)
Daily Research bonds
30 January 2020
Comment: Sinyal dari The Fed ini memberikan pertanda bahwa kebijakan moneter bank sentral tersebut akan difokuskan pada trend dari level harga, dimana kami proyeksikan suku bunga acuan tidak akan berubah dalam jangka menengah. Dan jika pemulihan ekonomi global tiba-tiba terganggu dengan penyebaran virus corona yang semakin parah, bukan tidak mungkin The Fed akan pivoting dengan memangkas bunga acuan kembali.