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BCA Sekuritas telah mempunyai landasan yang kokoh dalam riset keuangan berkat dukungan para ahli dan analis yang obyektif serta sinergi yang baik dengan grup BCA. Nikmati keuntungan dari pendekatan unik kami yang telah terbukti, dan buatlah prediksi yang lebih baik hari ini.
Riset Saham Harian
25 April 2019
IIMS targets IDR4.4tn transaction value
Indonesia International Motor Show (IIMS) is aiming for IDR4.4tn in transaction value with 530,000 visitors, a flat target compared to last year’s realization. Several brands will launch their new products during the event, including BMW, Suzuki, Hyundai, Honda, DFSK, Mercedes, and Mitsubishi Motors. (Bisnis Indonesia)
Govt’ to implement luxury tax on low cost green car (LCGC)
The govt’ plans to apply luxury tax on cars based on the CO2 emission produced, from previously based on machine capacity. Thus according to the current LCGC’s emissions, there will be a 3% luxury tax (PPnBM) on LCGC from previously 0%. The regulation is expected to be issued in 1H19. (Detik Finance)
Setback in Pertamina and Saudi Aramco JV
Pertamina and Saudi Aramco’s plan to make a JV on Refinery Development Masterplan Program (RDMP) Cilacap is expected to be delayed due to the Saudi Aramco’s disapproval in regards to the existing asset valuation in Cilacap. Previously, Pertamina expects the Cilacap refinery to be completed in 2025. Thus, the negotiation is expected to be extended to Jun-19 and if no agreement is reached, Pertamina decides to self-fund the project or find new partnership. (Kontan)
ASII 1Q19 result: in line with ours and consensus’
ASII booked 1Q19 earnings of IDR5.2tn (+13.4% QoQ and 4.7% YoY), in line with our and consensus’ expectations. 4W net profit contribution declined to 26% (1Q18: 29%), while on the flip side heavy equipment booked a stronger contribution of 35% (1Q18: 30%).
1Q19 revenue came in at IDR59.6tn (-7.3% QoQ but 6.8% YoY), also in line with our and consensus’. Auto segment’s contribution declined to 43% (1Q18: 46%) as a result of a soft 4W sales in the first 2 month of 2019. Mining contracting booked a higher contribution to 38% (1Q18: 34%), contributed by the strong mining contracting growth and the contribution from gold.
EBIT reached IDR6.9tn (+3.7% QoQ and +15.2% YoY), in line with ours and consensus’ expectations. 1Q19 margins expanded to 21.2% vs 1Q18 of 20.3%.
ASII managed to tone down their net gearing to 26.2% vs 1Q18: 28.9%
Our latest call on ASII is a BUY with IDR9,250 TP.
Bank CIMB Niaga (BNGA) posted 1Q19 NP of IDR944bn (+6.0% QoQ, +7.7% YoY)
BNGA posted net profit of IDR994bn (+6.0% QoQ, +7.0% YoY) in 1Q18, in-line with 26.9% of our and 26.4% of consensus full-year estimates, primarily supported by lower provisioning expense (-12.0% YoY). NII was flattish, as CoF picked up but was offset by interest income increase (+4.8% YoY). NIM rose to 5.3% in 1Q19 vs. 5.1% in 1Q18 and 5.1% in 4Q18.
Non-interest income increased +31.5% YoY in 1Q19, on the back of gain in spot and derivative transactions (+138.9% YoY). However, BNGA saw also sharp hike in spot and derivative transaction loss (+638% YoY). Hence, net realized spot and derivative transaction profit reached IDR213.4bn (+19.2% YoY).
Loan growth stood at +5.0% YoY, but flattish QoQ, supported by sharia loan (+61.2% YoY) end Mar-18. Meanwhile, conventional loan shrank -1.1% YoY during the same period. On the deposit side, deposit grew flat end Mar-19, resulting in continuing theme of liquidity tightening for BNGA (1Q19 LDR: 98.6% vs. 1Q18 LDR: 94.0%).
NPL continued to improved 3.04% end Mar-19 vs. 3.11% end Dec-18 and 3.51% end Mar-18, as auto loan realignment continues.
Our last rating was BUY with IDR1,230 TP. More details to follow after this afternoon’s conference call.
INCO 1Q19 result: below our and consensus
INCO booked 1Q19 net loss of USD20mn, below our and consensus. The weaker than expected results were due to a higher COGS (+24% YoY) coupled with weak sales.
1Q19 revenue came in at USD126mn (-35.9% QoQ and -25.8% YoY), also below ours and consensus’. This was the result of a lower ASP coupled with lower volume as the company conducted a scheduled and non-scheduled maintenance in 1Q19.
INCO booked 1Q19 operating loss ofUSD26mn, below our and consensus’.
INCO managed to maintain their net cash position in 1Q19.
Our last call was a BUY with IDR3,200 TP.
UNVR 1Q19 result: In-line
1Q19 NP: IDR1,8tn (-3.2% QoQ / -4.3% YoY); declining profitability was mainly due to lower margin in Food and Refreshment segment (GPM down by 270bps QoQ/320bps YoY) coupled with soft sales volume; in-line with ours’ and consensus’ expectations.
1Q19 Revenue: IDR10.7tn (+3.8% QoQ / -0.8% YoY); in-line with us and consensus.
1Q19 EBIT: IDR2.3tn (-3.3% QoQ / -6.2% YoY); in-line with ours’ and consensus’ estimate.
1Q19 Gross margin: 49.8% vs. 4Q18: 51.4% vs. 1Q18: 51.1%.
Our last rating was FULLY VALUED with IDR41,500 TP.
United Tractor (UNTR IJ) 1Q19: Net profit reached IDR3tn in 1Q19, in line with our estimate and cons
UNTR booked 1Q19 net profit of IDR3.0tn (+48.6% QoQ but +20.4% YoY), in line with ours (25.6%) and consensus (25.7%) estimates.
Revenue reached IDR22.6tn in 1Q19 (-3.7% QoQ, +19.0% YoY), in line with ours (24.5%) and consensus (25.1%) estimates.
Gross margin reached 25.2% in 1Q19 vs 23.4% in 1Q18, due to the contribution from Martabe Gold Mine.
We maintained our BUY rating with TP of IDR35,000 on UNTR
Aneka Tambang (ANTM) 1Q19 operational performance
ANTM CEO Arie Prabowo Ariotedjo stated that ANTM booked 1Q19 gold sales from Ponkor mine of 315kg (+3.9% YoY) and 1Q19 ferronickel sales of 7.1k TNi (+34% YoY). Meanwhile, 1Q19 nickel ore sales declined by 948tons (-18% YoY) and bauxite ore by 55k tons (-34% YoY). Company aims to book sales of 30.2k TNi in ferronickel and 32kg in gold in 2019. (Bisnis Indonesia)
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA) to double its stocks for Ramadhan
JPFA plans to increase the stocks of beef and processed poultry products up to two folds in anticipation of the increasing demand during Ramadhan. Note that during normal condition, price of chicken meat increases by 5-8% from the base price, while price could increase by 10-13% during Lebaran. (Bisnis Indonesia)
Bukit Asam (PTBA) targets minimum IDR2tn proceed from treasury stock sales
PTBA is currently reviewing the plan to sell its treasury stock amounting to 586.8mn shares within 2019 (512.9mn shares in May-19 while another 74mn shares in Dec-19). Company targets a minimum proceed of IDR2tn from these treasury stocks with BNI Sekuritas, Bahana Sekuritas, Danareksa Sekuritas, and Credit Suisse acting as the underwriters of the corporate action. Note that currently company has a total of 917.1mn treasury stocks (the rest has deadline on Dec-21) and Inalum has shown their interests to increase its ownership in PTBA through its share purchase in Apr-19. (Investor Daily)
Sarana Multimedia Nusantara (TOWR) to distribute dividend of IDR17.5/share
TOWR AGM agreed to distribute dividend with a payout ratio of 54%, translating to IDR17.52 DPS (2.4% dividend yield). (Company)
Garuda Indonesia (GIAA): Key takeaways from analyst meeting
We recently attended GIAA's 1Q19 analyst meeting, below are several key:
GIAA booked 1Q19 revenue of USD983mn (+11.9% YoY), which translates to USD19.7mn (+130.7% YoY) net profit. This was supported by a higher 1Q19 passenger yield of USd7.7 (+13.6 YoY) for Garuda main brand while Citilink also booked a higher yield of USd7.4 (+55.9% YoY). Domestic seat load factor reached 73.3% (+3.5% YoY) despite domestic passenger carried declined by 3.5mn (-21.9%) on the back of a lower capacity adjustment. This resulted in a 26% fuel burn reduction. Given the above, management is guiding for FY19 target revenue of USD5.4bn with target net profit of USD100mn despite a higher jet fuel price assumption of USd69/litre.
To underpin growth, GIAA will execute several initiatives including: i) the tariff adjustment and capacity adjustment to widen its margin that include reducing a several under performing routes and adding more capacity to profitable routes, ii) expanding their cargo business by adding some new business such as Cargo Village, TauBeres (collaboration with Gojek, Grab and several E-Commerce), as well as cooperating with Lion Group.
Government's plan to form SOE Aviation holding, will appoint Survay Udara Penas as the holding company with Garuda Indonesia, Angkasa Pura I and Angkasa Pura II as the subsidiaries.
GIAA aims to complete the acquisition of Sriwijaya by end of Sep-19 pending the asset valuation. GIAA also aims to form a join operation with Airasia. (Company)
On a separate news, 2 commissioners disapproved GIAA's FY18 financial statement on the concern of the inclusion of income from their agreement with Mahata Aero Technolocy (USD239.9mn) and income receivable of Sriwijaya Air (USD28mn + USD2.8mn VAT). Stripping off the 2 revenues, GIAA would experience a net loss in 2018. (Kontan)
Garuda Indonesia (GIAA): Two commissioners disapproved of 2018 FS
Two GIAA commissioners raised concerns on GIAA’s financial statement, due to the inclusion of income from their agreements with Mahata Aero Technologi (USD239.9mn) as well as income and receivables from Sriwijaya Air (USD28mn + USD2.8mn VAT) to 2018 FS. (Kontan)
Daily Research bonds
25 April 2019
Comment: Kami setuju dengan konsensus analis dan ekonom yang disurvei Bloomberg yang memprediksi bahwa bank sentral akan menahan BI’s 7-D RR rate di level 6% pada RDG bulan April ini. Kedepannya, kami belum melihat timing yang tepat dari Bank Indonesia untuk sesegera mungkin menurunkan suku bunga dikarenakan masih ada resiko eksternal yang mengintai seperti negosiasi dagang AS-China yang masih harus menunggu finalisasi. Lebih jauh kami melihat pula laporan keuangan perusahaan besar di bursa Wall Street yang lebih bagus dari perkiraan juga sedikit meredakan ekspektasi perlambatan global, sehingga telah menaikan imbal hasil US treasury.
Comment: Kami sepakat dengan pandangan dari World Bank mengenai tren pertumbuhan PDB kawasan, namun kami memproyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sedikit lebih rendah di level 5,12% yang dibebani oleh melambatnya ekspor ke negara-negara tujuan utama.