Moody’s Assigned Baa2 Rating to Indonesia’s Global Bonds

MACROECONOMY 
Moody’s Assigned Baa2 Rating to Indonesia’s Global Bonds 
Moody’s Ratings affirmed the Baa2 investment grade rating on USD 10 bn global bonds issued by the Government of Indonesia, including yuan offshore and euro‑denominated bonds, based on stable economic fundamentals supported by natural resource wealth, favorable demographics, and projected around 5% medium term growth. The agency expects fiscal deficits to remain below 3% of GDP and the debt ratio around 40% of GDP, but also noted weakening policy predictability and less effective communication as risks that could increase volatility in equity and FX markets if they persist. (Bloomberg Technoz)

COMPANY 
BCAS: AUTO IJ - 4Q25 net profit +26% yoy; inline with ours, but above cons' estimate 
- 4Q25 net profit rose 26% yoy to IDR 636 bn; 2025 net profit (+8.4%) accounted for 100.6% of ours and 104.8% of consensus estimate. 
- 4Q25 Revenue was slightly down 2.4% qoq due to fewer working days, but still rose 4% yoy. 2025 revenue inclined 4.4% yoy, accounted 100% of ours and consensus estimate. - 4Q25 Income from affiliates remained strong (+4.5% qoq, +25% yoy), 2025 performance posted 13.4% yoy growth. 
Our view: another quarter with solid performance. 12M25, AUTO booked +17.6% yoy in normalized net profit, also with inclined net margin (+120 bp yoy). With higher cash on hand, we project a higher final dividend of IDR 147-170/sh, translate to 5-6% dividend yield at current price IDR 2,760. Maintain BUY at TP IDR 3,200