IMF Lifted 2025 Global Growth Outlook to 3%

ECONOMIC REPORT
Will another wave of China’s inventory upcycle incoming?
• US trade deals often hinge on trade diversion, pressuring export-driven economies like China.
• With weak domestic demand, China may increasingly target Indonesia and other EMs as EU demand shifts.
• A new wave of cheap imports could benefit Indonesian consumers, while manufacturers appear better shielded by FX effects.

(Please refer to our report here)

MACROECONOMY
IMF Lifted 2025 Global Growth Outlook to 3%
The IMF raised its 2025 global growth forecast to 3%, citing strong pre-tariff spending and lower US tariff rates. While risks remain from trade tensions and fiscal deficits, improved financial conditions and a weaker dollar support growth. US growth is projected at 1.9%, the EU at 1.0%, and China at 4.2%. Global trade growth is also revised up to 2.6%. (Bisnis.com)

INDUSTRY
Indonesia's 1H25 Coal DMO Reached 104.59 MT
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources reported 1H25 DMO coal realization at 104.59 mn tons, or 44% of the 2025 DMO target of 239 mn tons from 739 mn tons total production. Coal export is projected at 500 mn tons, down from 555 mn tons last year. IMA and APBI warn that rising costs and stagnant DMO price (USD 70/ton for power, USD 90/ton for non-power) pressure coal players amid falling prices and demand. (Kontan)

COMPANY
BCAS: TOTL IJ - 2Q25 – All Time High Margin, Above Estimate

- TOTL 2Q25 revenue rose 33.9% YoY to IDR828bn, taking the 1H25 cumulative revenue to IDR1.68trn (+16.6% YoY) – in-line with ours and street estimate at 44% and 46%. It was supported by strong new contract achievement in the past 2 years (FY24: IDR4.2trn & FY25: 5.2trn).
- Gross margin reached an all-time high 2Q25: 25.1%, 1H25: 21.9%, compared to historical average of 17%, doubling EBIT to IDR159bn (+62.2% QoQ, +117.1% YoY). 1H25 EBIT reached IDR257bn (+65.6% YoY), above ours and consensus estimate at 57% and 64%.
- Net profit also strengthen to IDR99bn (+30.2% QoQ, +64.7% YoY), with the total 1H25 earnings of IDR174bn (+54.9% YoY) – also above expectation at 54% and 58% of ours and consensus estimate
Our view: Revenue recognition to remain robust, as competition on the private project easing, however we are expecting margin to normalize in the FY25.